Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 19.755364 23.789906 28.230516 33.453180 39.398930 45.928706 53.612728
2025-09-14 13.394597 18.530351 24.776438 32.810371 42.740338 54.479832 69.265967
2025-09-21 10.370566 16.016588 23.432753 33.621459 46.967168 63.555544 85.404063
2025-09-28 7.564732 13.022204 20.740920 32.011315 47.559750 67.745435 95.358127
2025-10-05 6.334125 11.929280 20.330689 33.196790 51.660886 76.419178 111.234150
2025-10-12 5.302949 10.894875 19.781195 34.000469 55.143507 84.313981 126.328074
2025-10-19 4.453545 9.962896 19.206948 34.617113 58.285699 91.787420 141.074643
2025-10-26 3.817418 9.260643 18.868601 35.493543 61.776945 99.826019 156.843715
2025-11-02 3.095608 8.228053 17.808803 35.065440 63.193647 104.877887 168.538062
2025-11-09 2.593051 7.513525 17.185992 35.249648 65.499872 111.253799 182.281312
2025-11-16 2.119655 6.739612 16.329210 34.916389 66.904218 116.280758 194.178185
2025-11-23 1.655184 5.851908 15.107514 33.786569 66.881368 119.071650 202.802240
2025-11-30 1.400277 5.444656 14.849605 34.494841 70.159953 127.407729 220.523995
2025-12-07 1.082796 4.760782 13.902657 33.821074 71.058220 132.099460 233.006312
2025-12-14 0.918644 4.463272 13.749431 34.650425 74.601716 141.130293 252.436056
2025-12-21 0.658225 3.731938 12.443584 33.001768 73.565674 142.631625 260.139748
2025-12-28 0.574003 3.582488 12.522956 34.215581 77.809704 152.981723 282.099932
2026-01-04 0.486957 3.380171 12.428712 35.038344 81.353423 162.272101 302.626770
2026-01-11 0.407206 3.165302 12.259262 35.669564 84.552135 171.075247 322.604496
2026-01-18 0.347208 3.006406 12.213885 36.566611 88.298305 180.930723 344.548412
2026-01-25 0.265894 2.680796 11.618941 36.128452 89.383901 186.195684 359.095570
2026-02-01 0.212814 2.465712 11.307552 36.316990 91.709504 193.690139 377.506859
2026-02-08 0.161499 2.209149 10.804076 35.975893 92.921559 199.227625 392.773200